Have you heard people talking about China's Tiangong-1 space station, a.k.a. "Heavenly Palace"?

According to the most recent calculations performed by The Aerospace Corporation (the non-profit organization which has been tracking the station) Tiangong-1 is expected to come crashing down into Earth's atmosphere at approximately 6:30 am EST this Sunday, April 1. And although it would be unlikely that Tiangong-1 comes to Jersey City, it's not impossible – we're in the zone for it!

Launched Sept. 29, 2011, Tiangong-1 is about the size of a school bus (34 feet long, 11 feet wide) and weighs 18,000 lbs. This is a good-sized station, though significantly smaller than the International Space Station (925,000 lbs) and the Russian Mir Space Station (268,000 lbs). A crew of three Chinese astronauts spent two weeks at the station in June 2012, followed by a second crew of three astronauts (also for a two-week stay) in June 2013.

Tiangong-1 has not had a crew since 2013, and the China Space Agency announced in 2016 that the mission was officially over. Given the fact that telemetry with the station has been lost, this also meant it was no longer possible to have the craft fire its thrusters for a controlled descent into the ocean.

Since it is no longer possible to control the station, and since the timing of its descent will be impacted by factors such as small changes in the atmosphere and solar radiation, it’s not possible to pinpoint the exact moment of descent, nor where it will come back to Earth. But predictions have it anywhere up to 43 degrees north (the latitude of Buffalo, NY) and as down to 43 degrees south (the latitude of the South Island of New Zealand).

Any place within this zone has a possible chance of seeing the re-entry, and that includes Jersey City, which – at latitude 40 – is just within the northern limit of the zone.

The station will break up upon re-entry, and for those near the re-entry area, there may be bright streaks in the sky as pieces of the station break up.

So is there anything to worry about? According to The Aerospace Corporation, the probability that a specific person will be struck by Tiangong-1 debris is about one million times smaller than the odds of winning the Powerball jackpot.